Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
