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Increasing concerns exist over the possibility of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa neighbours, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as confrontational language has intensified in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has sparked a intense rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed previously announced in 2023 that his nation's sea access was an crucial concern, comments that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have regularly been difficult. After a long-standing struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, leaving it landlocked.

In 1998, a border war erupted in which numerous people were killed.

Latest Statements from Ethiopia's Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrea's coastal city of Assab – some 60 km from the border - and suggested the desire to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of losing access to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrea secession would be "addressed tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "using武力".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Claims

In the face of continuous challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been restricted to short statements on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane G..

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea describing it as "dangerous" and a "negative policy" of "irredentism" – a strategy of reclaiming lost territory.

Eritrean authorities alerted on mid-September that efforts to justify "blatant hostility" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Movements on the Border

There have been no reports of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the both nations.

Nonetheless, in the country, national TV has shown training completions of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The head of personnel division of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an conversation that the military was in a "strong stance" as "many thousands of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Historical Origins of the Tension

For more than half a century from 1890, the territory was administered by Italian rulers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the British military before evolving into a integrated region of Ethiopia.

However in the early 1960s the ruler cancelled this agreement and the region became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A extended civil war occurred, concluding with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Sovereignty was then endorsed by the population in a referendum in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, causing hostilities in 1998.

Although this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the neighbors remained at in dispute.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two endorsed a declaration that the war was finished – a decision that won the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The both administrations were then allies in Ethiopia's previous internal conflict in Tigray.

However ties have later worsened again.